As we speak, measles is enjoying its biggest comeback in decades across the United States, signaling a growing crisis and causing panic among health officials. The outbreak first emerged in January among members of a close-knit Mennonite community in West Texas. By the end of April it had expanded to no less than 30 jurisdictions. Now, cases are rising dramatically, and many medical professionals are worried. This increase is mostly attributed to declining childhood vaccination rates, which have decreased dramatically over the past few years.
Prior to the introduction of the measles vaccine, the disease killed 400 to 500 Americans annually. These deaths were mostly from complications related to the disease. Although the vaccine had eliminated measles in the country for two decades, experts now warn that if vaccination rates continue to fall, the disease could potentially return to endemic levels.
Current Outbreak and Its Implications
And more recently, that outbreak in West Texas has garnered national attention, becoming a rallying cry for public health leaders. Currently in late April 2019, jurisdictions around the United States are experiencing measles outbreaks, mostly among unvaccinated persons. This downward trend only highlights the dangers that can stem from insufficient vaccination rates.
“Measles is in the midst of a substantial resurgence in the United States at the present time,” said infectious diseases expert William Schaffner. Health officials are understandably alarmed by these trends. If they don’t reverse course, the U.S. can expect as many as 51 million additional measles cases over the next quarter century. Even a 10% drop in vaccination rates would lead to nearly 11 million more cases in that period.
In fact, according to the CDC, prior to the introduction of the vaccine, measles killed 400-500 Americans annually. Most of these deaths were due to complications from the disease. Until recently, that number was zero. The evidence is overwhelming as it is on all vaccines. The measles vaccine is both perfectly safe and remarkably effective.
Factors Contributing to the Resurgence
Low vaccination rates among children have played a huge role in the recently increasing tide of measles cases. In recent years, anti-vaccine sentiment has become widely accepted, resulting in growing outbreaks. Severe complications from measles affect unvaccinated people and people who are immunocompromised disproportionately.
The CDC wants people to understand that complications from measles can happen at any age, but the older you are, the greater the risk is. Unfortunately, this resurgence is creating a dangerous threat to public health. It casts a troubling shadow on the long-term implications for disease prevention across our nation.
As Schaffner noted, that would be a worst-case scenario. He thinks that maybe it doesn’t have to get that awful. He warned the public not to get too comfortable, saying it’s important for health authorities to stay on their toes.
The Future of Measles in America
If vaccination rates dip below 90 percent, and some experts say even below 50 percent, there’s a risk that measles will become endemic once again in the United States. That would mean a whopping 180% increase in cases as compared to all recently reported cases in 2024. In all, roughly 800 measles cases and ten outbreaks were reported that year.
Health officials are urging the restoration of robust strategies used to increase vaccination coverage levels among children and other vulnerable segments of the population. Neglecting to make these changes would risk catastrophic consequences for both public health and safety.
I find it hard to tell people that we need to learn to live with it. That prospect strikes me as deeply tragic. Schaffner said, underscoring the need to act quickly to stop this growing public health menace.
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